I. Trends in Epidemics

Secular trends in new childhood epidemics: insights from evolutionary medicine

In the last few decades, pediatric medicine has observed a dramatic increase in the prevalence of hitherto rare illnesses, among which obesity, diabetes, allergies and other autoimmune diseases stand out. In addition, secular trends towards earlier onset of puberty and sexual activity contribute to the psychological problems of youth and adolescents. All this has occurred in spite of the improv...

Tracking the Hidden Epidemics - Trends in STDs 1998

Dynamic Forecasting of Zika Epidemics Using Google Trends

We developed a dynamic forecasting model for Zika virus (ZIKV), based on real-time online search data from Google Trends (GTs). It was designed to provide Zika virus disease (ZVD) surveillance and detection for Health Departments, and predictive numbers of infection cases, which would allow them sufficient time to implement interventions. In this study, we found a strong correlation between Zik...

Internet Epidemics: Attacks, Detection and Defenses, and Trends

Internet epidemics are malicious software that can self-propagate across the Internet, i.e., compromise vulnerable hosts and use them to attack other victims. Since the early stage of the Internet, epidemics have caused enormous damages and been a significant security threat. For example, the Morris worm infected 10% of all hosts in the Internet in 1988; the Code Red worm compromised at least 3...

Tracking Epidemics with State-space SEIR and Google Flu Trends

In this paper we use Google Flu Trends data together with a sequential surveillance model based on the state-space methodology, to track the evolution of an epidemic process over time. We embed a classical mathematical epidemiology model (a susceptible-exposed-infectedrecovered (SEIR) model) within the state-space framework, thereby allowing the SEIR dynamics to change through time. The impleme...